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Monday, January 01, 2007

What will 2007 hold for bloggers?

My blog is a niche blog or theme specific. It focuses on writing: authors, literary agents, novels, etc with a little smattering of my personal observations and opinions tossed in (ok, a lot). However, I’m still a blogger and the vast world of the blogosphere is where I keep my little corner of writing happiness.

I want blog traffic and I want readers. I know you’ve heard me say it before, all bloggers want traffic and readers. The motives may differ and the amount that will satisfy us may differ – but we all want the same thing. Successful bloggers have a pretty good history of content under their belt and while they were building their content, they were learning.

You don’t want to move into a new town without knowing at least something about it, right? The same theory applies with the blogosphere. While I remain in my blog niche, that doesn’t mean I’m not checking out dozens of other blogs that exist within other niches and trying to learn all I can.

Problogger is an excellent spring board for bloggers. On Problogger I found link to Andrew Wee. I’ve found vast amounts of information in both locations. Today Andrew made a post on blog predictions of 2007. He's started the Blogging Predictions 2007 Meme and tagged 20 people to post their own thoughts of what will happen in 2007.

One of the big trend forecasts going around right now for bloggers is that 2007 will see a peak and then a decline in blogging. Some are predicting the “death of bloggers”. Gartner Media Relations said in report:

Blogging and community contributors will peak in the first half of 2007. Given the trend in the average life span of a blogger and the current growth rate of blogs, there are already more than 200 million ex-bloggers. Consequently, the peak number of bloggers will be around 100 million at some point in the first half of 2007.

I wonder what Gartner has determined as the average life span of bloggers?

In November, Technorati reported that the blogosphere was doubling itself every 230 days and nearly 100,000 new blogs were created each day. At that time Technorati was tracking around 57 million blogs.

Blogging is subjective on many levels and it’s incredibly difficult to pin down what’s going to happen. I do not think that 2007 will bring the death of blogging. I do, however, think we’ll see some branching off. Corporations will continue to become more involved in the blogosphere. I believe this will change the tone and structure of those corporation websites and some blogs. I believe that many of the new bloggers of 2006 will have gained experience and we’ll continue to see more involved and sophisticated blogs from the home user that are more theme specific.

Advertising and blog income tools will continue to flourish. I agree with many other predictions that RSS or feeds will become more prevalent. RSS will become less “complicated” to understand and tools will continue to be developed to help the growth and development of syndication.

Memes have their place, but I think they will begin to taper off in popularity simply because of the saturation of content that is currently focused on memes. Not that they don’t have their place and not that they won’t continue – I just think we’ll start to see a decline in reader preference toward the meme.

I believe that in 2007 it will be more important for blogs to have some kind of theme or specification. The competition for market share of readers is tight; supply and demand takes on a whole new meaning when you apply it to the blogosphere. Those blogs that are relatively new and not niche specific are going to have a hard time generating and keeping traffic. It will require time and patience for new blogs to be in a position to compete with the big blogs (even more so than now). It is in this area where I feel blogging may see the decrease.

I imagine by June we’ll be seeing a lot of dead blogs: those blogs that started in winter of 06 or January of 07 but the blogger lost interest because they didn’t see hits after a month or two. That, or the blogger realized it would take more time and energy than they were willing to share.

In all, I think 2007 will be a good year to observe the blogosphere and see what will stay strong and what will taper off.

Labels: , ,

89 Comments:

Anonymous msdemmie said...

Happy New Year

3:07 PM  
Blogger Omni said...

"Meme’s have their place"

You mean "memes," right? :-)

4:23 PM  
Blogger Christa said...

I think it's interesting to see how our blogging have changed throughout the years. And I've done this for the past 7-8 years now.

Have a Happy New Year and thanks for stopping by at my blog, SkinDeep :D

5:01 PM  
Blogger Rashenbo said...

Memes... aye, I wryt gud Engrish.

5:09 PM  
Blogger Susan Helene Gottfried said...

I dunno. I've been mulling this over for a few hours now and quite simply, blogs are going to be what we make of them. We being those of us who have a blog, who maintain it, who are into it.

Worrying about more than that is a potential waste of energy that could be spent making our blogs better. No matter what we do, we should always be striving for better, right?

5:44 PM  
Anonymous damien said...

I really enjoyed reading your post. On the question of whether personal blogs will fade out, I will answer this for now:

Yes, the trend of signing up for a free blogging service and writing posts like "Yikes I broke a nail," will inevitably fade out. I think Blogs are a fad without question, but good writing is not.

Thanks for the post! I posted on the topic and gave you a trackback.

6:46 PM  
Anonymous Secret Simon said...

Happy New year - and thanks for leaving a comment on my blog a few days ago. You seem to have a useful site here, and thanks for the links to various blogging resources. Problogger looks friendly and helpful. I also tried Andrew Wee but found him a bit daunting, like he's come from some alternative corporate universe. Maybe I'll try him another time when my brain's attached.

My own tip is to sign up at the Bestest Blog Of All Time directory (there's a link from my site). I seem to get more referrals from this than from any other blog directory, mainly because Bobby (who runs it) is always trying out new ideas. If you try it, please tell him I sent you. (I don't think I get any points for it or anything but he might as well know!)

6:57 PM  
Anonymous andrew wee said...

Hi,
Interesting prediction.

One thing about the media and research though is they're useful for picking up the zeitgeist and are sometimes merely a reflection of current sentiment.

contrast that against time's election of 'you' as a generator of content, and bloggers (in my opinion) being the epitome of content-generators.

i think bloggers has a self-renewing quality about them.

for every blogger that abandons their blog, another 2 or 3 will take their place.

2007 should be an interesting time...

secret simon: greetings from the alternative corporate universe...!

7:48 PM  
Blogger Mares said...

Great article
Blogging serves so many purposes and I really don't think it will be an archival activity. It is the new multimodal style of expression/communication. So the strategy may change but the content will remain much the same. People who bang on about personal destructive practices may die out but enlghtened and informative folk will live on.
Mares

11:21 PM  
Anonymous Micah said...

I believe personal blogs will begin to dwindle in the future as the fad dies out. I agree 100% with damien's comment, good writing will never die, whether in blog form or another, it will continue.

Happy New Year!

12:15 AM  
Anonymous Rob said...

I wondered if I was going to ever get any readership when I started on 30th Dec 2005.

Just over a year on I'm still seeing new readers - many from Google searches but others from recommendations.

There are times when I think I'll pack it all in, but then something I think might be interesting to write about transpires and I get myself some new material without needed to resort to filling my site with Memes, Videos and the same old regurgitated stuff that 1 million other blogs had before.

5:09 AM  
Anonymous Joy T. said...

Happy New Year! Here's hoping many readers find your wonderful and informative blog in 2007. I've 'tipped' you on my blog this month :o)

4:29 PM  
Blogger Talia Mana, Centre for Emotional Well-Being said...

I can't see the death of blogging but I do think ezines will drop in popularity and people will have to find new ways to market as marketing lists will not be as effective.

I'm not a big fan of memes but that's because they rarely fit with the themes of my blog.

Interesting post rashenbo. Judging by the comments you're already getting improved traffic :)

Happy New Year
Talia

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